Note: Expectations are for unleveraged properties.
Name
Company
Title/Position
Institution/Company
Please Choose:
Investment Advisor/Manager
Real Estate Consulting Entity
Pension Fund
Insurance
Financial Institution
Other
Phone number
Email
Investment Strategy
Is there anyone else in your firm or in another organization you can also recommend to fill out this survey? If so, please provide a name and contact information.
1. Pre-tax Yield Rate/IRR & Cap Rates
What are your current unleveraged yield expectations by property type? What are your expectations for free and clear going-in and terminal capitalization rates?
First Tier Properties:
New or newer quality construction in prime or good locations
2. Direct Capitalization and DCF
What is the most relevant income approach method? Rated on a scale of 1 = Least Relevant to 10 = Most Relevant
3. When is the cap rate applied, before or after reserves?
Cap rate applied to what level of NOI?
4. Growth Rates
What are your current underwriting assumptions regarding growth rates? Please respond "0" if you anticipate no growth. Also please respond to the number of years a typical holding period is for the respective property types.
5. Leasing Assumptions
When modeling tenants for purposes of DCF analysis, what rollover/tenant turnover probabilities (i.e., the probability a tenant will renew/vacate at the end of their lease) would you typically use for each of the major land uses? Please indicate your assumptions for vacancy loss and down times for releasing space.
6. Availability of Capital
How would you rate the current availability and discipline of capital? (1 = poor; 10 = excellent)
Comments
7. Investment recommendation
Generally, in a mixed-asset context, will the coming quarter be a good time to buy, sell, or hold real estate? (1 = poor; 10 = excellent)
8. How do you see lending activity occurring?
Increasing
Decreasing
Stable
None
9. Activity
Who are the most active Equity Investors?
Who are the most active lenders?
10. Property Types: Buy-Sell-Hold
Please select the appropriate recommendation for each property type for the upcoming quarter.
11. Property Types: Investment Conditions
How would you rate the current investment conditions by property type? (1 = Poor; 10 = Excellent)
12. Investment Alternatives Outlook
Please rate the upcoming quarter's outlook for the following investment alternatives. (1 = Poor to 10 = Excellent)
Please explain the reason for your top rated investment alternative.
13. GDP
How do you expect the GDP growth estimate/U.S. economy to be over the next 4 quarters? Please rate on a scale of 1 to 10. (1=very weak, 10=very strong)
What is your rate (%) of GDP growth for the next 4 quarters?
%
Comments
14. When will the economy start to see sustainable GDP growth?
0 - 3 months
3 - 6 months
9 - 12 months
More than 12 months
Why?
15. What are the strengths/weaknesses of the economy over the next 12 months
Rate each -10 to 10; with -10 reflecting a negative drag, 0 neutral, and 10 a positive influence.
Fiscal Policy
Please Choose:
-10 Negative Drag
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Neutral
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Positive Influence
Monetary Policy
Please Choose:
-10 Negative Drag
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Neutral
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Positive Influence
Job Growth
Please Choose:
-10 Negative Drag
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Neutral
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Positive Influence
Consumer Spending
Please Choose:
-10 Negative Drag
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Neutral
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Positive Influence
Housing Market
Please Choose:
-10 Negative Drag
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 Neutral
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Positive Influence
What are some of the biggest risks or major events you see in 2013?
16. Return vs. Risk
Please rate the relationship between return and risk. (1 = Return < Risk; 10 = Return > Risk)
17. Value vs. Price
Please rate the relationship between price and value. (1 = Value < Price; 10 = Value > Price)
18. Investment Opportunities
What property type is the best investment opportunity for the next four quarters? Why?
Which property type should be avoided in the coming four quarters? Why?
19. How much will commercial real estate PRICES adjust for the next 4 quarters?
Increase
Decrease
Remain unchanged
By what percent?
%
20. How much will commercial real estate VALUES adjust for the next 4 quarters?
Increase
Decrease
Remain unchanged
By what percent?
%
21. What direction are cap rates headed over the next quarter?
Increasing
Decreasing
Remaining unchanged
By how many basis points?
basis points
22. What direction are cap rates headed over the next 4 quarters?
Increasing
Decreasing
Remaining unchanged
By how many basis points?
basis points
23. Changes in Treasury Rate
Over the next 6 months, where do you expect 10-year U.S. Treasurys to be (1.8% as of 4Q 2012)?
Significantly higher
Slightly higher, having increased gradually
About the same as today
Lower
Over the next year, where do you expect 10-year U.S. Treasurys to be?
Significantly higher
Slightly higher, having increased gradually
About the same as today
Lower
24. What effect do the European debt crisis and weak economies have on the U.S. economy?
Major negative effect
Positive impact, strengthening of the dollar and investment destination
Indirect effect only, instilling fear in the markets
No measurable effect
25. How will “fiscal cliff” spending cuts impact commercial real estate?
26. Other Survey Data
Would you be able to regularly provide survey data (particularly required discount/pre-tax yield rates, going-in and terminal cap rates, and rent/expense growth rates) for the property sub-types listed below, if RERC began analyzing and reporting this information?
